Proyecto Futura: Modeling Structural HIV Determinants in Substance Users and Related populations

Funded by NIDA grant R01 DA0 37773;

PIs: Natasha Martin, Steffanie Strathdee , Peter Vickerman

We are conducting secondary data analyses to model potential effects of structural determinants and combination interventions and cost-effectiveness to optimize HIV prevention in Tijuana. Our team of prevention scientists and modelers from the U.S., Mexico and the U.K. will utilize data from 8 NIH-funded R01s and related sub-studies in Tijuana.

Our aims are:

  1. To model overlapping HIV and syphilis epidemics occurring among different high risk groups in Tijuana (PWID, MSM, MSM-IDU, FSW, FSW-IDU, and their clients) to ascertain the extent to which HIV transmission is driven by specific risk groups and sexual or injecting risk behaviors.
  2. To assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of scaling up coverage of existing and novel interventions (e.g. SEP, OST, ART, and two existing behavioral interventions), targeted at specific risk subgroups, to identify the most cost-effective combination intervention package to control HIV transmission.
  3. To model the potential importance of policing practices and incarceration on HIV transmission among PWID in Tijuana, and the subsequent impact of a PEP on changing policing practices and HIV transmission.
  4. To model the potential impact of reducing involuntary (i.e., forced/coerced) entry into sex trade as a minor or adult on HIV transmission in Tijuana.

Our project will advance efforts to model the potential impacts of structural determinants and combination prevention interventions on emerging HIV epidemics in lower and middle-income countries.